September 1st, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $0 / Sim Trade Profit $366
Opening Comments @ 2:00
From the open the market moved very little until the European open, then rallied to near resistance at the 2480 level where it remained going sideways into the regular hours open.
The employment report came in with number lower than expected and appears to have put some downward pressure into the market.
Historically there is a rally prior to the Labour Day long weekend and it has happened again this year in dramatic form bringing us back to the all time highs in early August.
Yesterdays activity was pricing in an expectation of a good jobs report today, which we know now has not come in as bullish as anticipated.
We still maintain the mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis that after this rally the market will continue to decline into October and then rally again into the end of the year.
The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude.
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
We are in a Plan B situation holding 7 contracts short at an average price of 2458.79
Target is set at 2457.00
We added four contracts yesterday, taking the first sell signal after each rally.
We will not be as aggressive tomorrow in case the market continues higher.
This will give us 3 contracts to activate higher if necessary.
The employment report @ 8:30 came in under expectations so I decided to take another short position just before the open on a short signal coming off of the overnight high.
Adjusted Target to 2459.50
Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
Trading the Sim Account while the Real Money Account is under Plan B management.
1st Trade
1st Trade
Daily Summary & Charts (SIM Account)
Very much a sideways day today.
The market cooled off after the poor employment job report and could not penetrate resistance at the historic high.
Was still a pretty good trading day, although there were some tricky times in the price action.
Unfortunately we were stuck in our Plan B in the Real account an could not capitalize on these opportunities.
Still looking for a better way to stay out of or get out of the Plan B.
Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17)
Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses.
The fundamental logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit.
The guidelines are as follows;
1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow,
2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point target,
3. If flipping requires more than 5 contracts ( this happens if the market runs away or if there are consecutive losing trades) we revert to Plan B.
Plan B guidelines;
Hold the position and add contracts strategically as the market runs away from the entry point to maintain a break even that is within a 50% retracement level between to last low and high of the current market cycle.
The maximum number of contracts to be added is 5 for a total position of 10 contracts.
Look for W or Support & Resistance trade signals for entry points to add contracts.
Adjust the target as necessary to near the new break even as contracts are added.
Wait for the market to come back and hit the adjusted target.
The Flipping and Recovery Strategy in the Sim account is slightly different than the Real Account.
In the Sim account we will test taking every opposing signal until we reach a maximum of 10 contracts.
From the open the market moved very little until the European open, then rallied to near resistance at the 2480 level where it remained going sideways into the regular hours open.
The employment report came in with number lower than expected and appears to have put some downward pressure into the market.
Historically there is a rally prior to the Labour Day long weekend and it has happened again this year in dramatic form bringing us back to the all time highs in early August.
Yesterdays activity was pricing in an expectation of a good jobs report today, which we know now has not come in as bullish as anticipated.
We still maintain the mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis that after this rally the market will continue to decline into October and then rally again into the end of the year.
The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude.
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
We are in a Plan B situation holding 7 contracts short at an average price of 2458.79
Target is set at 2457.00
We added four contracts yesterday, taking the first sell signal after each rally.
We will not be as aggressive tomorrow in case the market continues higher.
This will give us 3 contracts to activate higher if necessary.
The employment report @ 8:30 came in under expectations so I decided to take another short position just before the open on a short signal coming off of the overnight high.
Target of $400 per day for this week.
Flip Trade - First Entry @ 30/08/17
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 10:24 | Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 2 | 2450.25 |
No follow through to the Short side.
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.
Revert to Plan B.
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 30/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 13:45 | 1st DWN off RES | 1 | 3 | 2457.25 | 2452.58 |
Adjusted Target to 2451.50
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 31/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 2:44 | 1st DWN off RES | 1 | 4 | 2457.50 | 2453.81 |
Adjusted Target to 2452.50
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 31/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 5:35 | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 5 | 2460.50 | 2455.15 |
Adjusted Target to 2454.00
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 31/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 9:30 | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 6 | 2468.25 | 2457.33 |
Adjusted Target to 2456.00
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 31/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 13:10 | 1st DWN off RES | 1 | 7 | 2467.50 | 2458.79 |
Adjusted Target to 2457.00
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 01/09/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:22
| 1st DWN off RES | 1 | 8 | 2476.00 | 2460.84 |
Closed the day holding 8 contracts short at an average price of 2460.84
Target is set at 2459.50
Net on this position at this time is negative $5025.
Trading the Sim Account while the Real Money Account is under Plan B management.
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:35
|
Short
|
1st 2 DWN
|
1
|
2475.75
|
2474.75
|
$47
|
$47
|
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:54
|
Short
|
Cont-S
|
1
|
2475.00
|
2474.00
|
$48
|
$95
|
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:55
|
Short
|
Cont-S
|
1
|
2474.75
|
2473.75
|
$47
|
$142
|
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:56
|
Short
|
Cont-S
|
1
|
2473.50
|
2476.50
|
-$157
|
-$15
|
No follow through to the Short side, Flip Trade Long
1 Contract to Cover
5 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade
1st Trade
1 Contract to Cover
5 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:55
| Long | 1st 2 UP | 1 | 5 | 2476.50 | 2477.50 | $243 | $228 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:58
|
Long
|
Cont-L
|
1
|
2477.50
|
2478.50
|
$48
|
$276
|
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
11:48
|
Long
|
Cons-BO
|
1
|
2478.25
|
2479.25
|
$47
|
$323
|
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
11:54
|
Long
|
Cont-L
|
1
|
2479.00
|
2478.00
|
-$55
|
$268
|
No follow through to the Long side, Flip Trade Short
1 Contract to Cover
2 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade
Ended the day here with a profit of $366.
1 Contract to Cover
2 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
12:46
| Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 2 | 2478.00 | 2477.00 | $98 | $366 |
Ended the day here with a profit of $366.
Daily Summary & Charts (SIM Account)
Very much a sideways day today.
The market cooled off after the poor employment job report and could not penetrate resistance at the historic high.
Was still a pretty good trading day, although there were some tricky times in the price action.
Unfortunately we were stuck in our Plan B in the Real account an could not capitalize on these opportunities.
Still looking for a better way to stay out of or get out of the Plan B.
Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17)
Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses.
The fundamental logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit.
The guidelines are as follows;
1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow,
2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point target,
3. If flipping requires more than 5 contracts ( this happens if the market runs away or if there are consecutive losing trades) we revert to Plan B.
Plan B guidelines;
Hold the position and add contracts strategically as the market runs away from the entry point to maintain a break even that is within a 50% retracement level between to last low and high of the current market cycle.
The maximum number of contracts to be added is 5 for a total position of 10 contracts.
Look for W or Support & Resistance trade signals for entry points to add contracts.
Adjust the target as necessary to near the new break even as contracts are added.
Wait for the market to come back and hit the adjusted target.
The Flipping and Recovery Strategy in the Sim account is slightly different than the Real Account.
In the Sim account we will test taking every opposing signal until we reach a maximum of 10 contracts.
Trade Signals
Signal Type
|
Long Signal Name
|
Long Signal Acronym
|
Short Signal Name
|
Short Signal Acronym
|
Continuation Trades
|
Continuation Trade – Long
|
Cont-L
|
Continuation Trade – Short
|
Cont-S
|
Trend Correction Trades
|
Rally off higher short-term Low – Long
|
HI’r-LO’s
|
Decline off lower short-term High – Short
|
LO’r-HI’s
|
W Trades
|
W Bottom – Long
|
W-BTM
|
W Top – Short
|
W-TOP
|
Support & Resistance
|
1st Up off Support – Long
|
1st UP Off SUP
|
1st Down off Resistance – Short
|
1st DWN off RES
|
1st 2 in a Row Trades
|
1st 2 in a Row Up – Long
|
1st 2 UP
|
1st 2 in a Row Down – Short
|
1st 2 DWN
|
Consolidation Trades
|
Consolidation Break Out – Long
|
Cons-BO
|
Consolidation Break Down – Short
|
Cons-BD
|
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