August 25th, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $0 / Sim Trade Profit $829
Opening Comments @ 02:00
Very little movement overnight, the market hovered around the open.
At 2:30 near the European markets open there was a quick drop of about 4 points with a responding bounce back to the open.
There has been a narrowing trading range setting up since about noon yesterday.
Our mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis, has not changed.
We still expect the markets to continue lower into October.
The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude.
However, looking at the market activity we anticipate the correction could come back to the 2360 levels.
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
We are holding 4 short positions at an average price of 2433.50
Our current target is at 2431.25
We will continue working Plan B to manage this position.
Looking at yesterdays activity I noticed that it would have been possible to mov the break even point higher and provide an exit point by taking the first sell signal on each rally during the day.
I will try this strategy today to see if it works.
The risk here is that the market breaks higher after taking additional positions.
Plan B did not get us out of this trade today, but we are well positioned for next week.
No follow through to the Short side.
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.
Revert to Plan B.
Added 2 contracts today for a total of 6 contracts short at an average price of 2438.54
This brings our break even point well within the 50% Fibonnaci range of the recent market cycles and within range that the market has been trading in for the last 3 days.
Target adjusted to 2436.75 based on our new break even and the support level at the bottom of the 3 day trading range.
While the Plan B technique did not get us out of the trade today, we closed the week only about 6 points away from out target.
I believe we are well positioned for next weeks open.
At the end of the day we are down about $850 on this trade.
Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
Will trade the simulation while managing the Real trade.
The Flipping and Recovery Strategy in the Sim account is slightly different than the Real Account.
In the Sim account we will test taking the first signal in each reversal in the direction of our position until we reach a maximum of 10 contracts.
1st Trade
Flip Trade
Very little movement overnight, the market hovered around the open.
At 2:30 near the European markets open there was a quick drop of about 4 points with a responding bounce back to the open.
There has been a narrowing trading range setting up since about noon yesterday.
At about 5 am the market broke higher and rallied higher into the open.
Our mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis, has not changed.
We still expect the markets to continue lower into October.
The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude.
However, looking at the market activity we anticipate the correction could come back to the 2360 levels.
Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17)
Going back to the Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses.
The fundamental logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit.
The guidelines are as follows:
1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow,
2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point target,
3. If flipping requires more than 5 contracts ( this happens if the market runs away or if there are consecutive losing trades) we revert to Plan B.
Plan B guidelines:
Hold the position and add contracts strategically as the market runs away from the entry point to maintain a break even that is within a 50% retracement level between to last low and high of the current market cycle.
The maximum number of contracts to be added is 5 for a total position of 10 contracts.
Look for W or Support & Resistance trade signals for entry points to add contracts.
Adjust the target as necessary to near the new break even as contracts are added.
Wait for the market to come back and hit the adjusted target.
Trade Signals
Going back to the Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses.
The fundamental logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit.
The guidelines are as follows:
1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow,
2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point target,
3. If flipping requires more than 5 contracts ( this happens if the market runs away or if there are consecutive losing trades) we revert to Plan B.
Plan B guidelines:
Hold the position and add contracts strategically as the market runs away from the entry point to maintain a break even that is within a 50% retracement level between to last low and high of the current market cycle.
The maximum number of contracts to be added is 5 for a total position of 10 contracts.
Look for W or Support & Resistance trade signals for entry points to add contracts.
Adjust the target as necessary to near the new break even as contracts are added.
Wait for the market to come back and hit the adjusted target.
Trade Signals
Signal Type
|
Long Signal Name
|
Long Signal Acronym
|
Short Signal Name
|
Short Signal Acronym
|
Continuation Trades
|
Continuation Trade – Long
|
Cont-L
|
Continuation Trade – Short
|
Cont-S
|
Trend Correction Trades
|
Rally off higher short-term Low – Long
|
HI’r-LO’s
|
Decline off lower short-term High – Short
|
LO’r-HI’s
|
W Trades
|
W Bottom – Long
|
W-BTM
|
W Top – Short
|
W-TOP
|
Support & Resistance
|
1st Up off Support – Long
|
1st UP Off SUP
|
1st Down off Resistance – Short
|
1st DWN off RES
|
1st 2 in a Row Trades
|
1st 2 in a Row Up – Long
|
1st 2 UP
|
1st 2 in a Row Down – Short
|
1st 2 DWN
|
Consolidation Trades
|
Consolidation Break Out – Long
|
Cons-BO
|
Consolidation Break Down – Short
|
Cons-BD
|
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
We are holding 4 short positions at an average price of 2433.50
Our current target is at 2431.25
We will continue working Plan B to manage this position.
Looking at yesterdays activity I noticed that it would have been possible to mov the break even point higher and provide an exit point by taking the first sell signal on each rally during the day.
I will try this strategy today to see if it works.
The risk here is that the market breaks higher after taking additional positions.
Plan B did not get us out of this trade today, but we are well positioned for next week.
Flip Trade - Original Entry @ 21/08/17
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
10:06
| Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 2 | 2421.25 |
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.
Revert to Plan B.
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 22/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:11
| 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 3 | 2440.75 | 2427.75 |
We were approaching the 50% retracement level for this cycle, so I added one contract.
Adjusted the Target to 2426.25
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 22/08/17
Adjusted the Target to 2426.25
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 22/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
15:08
| 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 4 | 2450.75 | 2433.5 |
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 25/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
7:38
| 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 5 | 2446.50 | 2436.10 |
Plan B - Add to Short Position @ 25/08/17
Time
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Added
|
# Total Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Average Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:05
| 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 6 | 2450.75 | 2438.54 |
Added 2 contracts today for a total of 6 contracts short at an average price of 2438.54
This brings our break even point well within the 50% Fibonnaci range of the recent market cycles and within range that the market has been trading in for the last 3 days.
Target adjusted to 2436.75 based on our new break even and the support level at the bottom of the 3 day trading range.
While the Plan B technique did not get us out of the trade today, we closed the week only about 6 points away from out target.
I believe we are well positioned for next weeks open.
At the end of the day we are down about $850 on this trade.
Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
Will trade the simulation while managing the Real trade.
The Flipping and Recovery Strategy in the Sim account is slightly different than the Real Account.
In the Sim account we will test taking the first signal in each reversal in the direction of our position until we reach a maximum of 10 contracts.
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
5:06
| Long | Cont-L | 1 | 2444.50 | 2445.50 | $47 | $47 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 5:31 | Long | Cont-L | 1 | 2446.50 | 2447.50 | $48 | $95 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 7:38 | Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 2446.50 | 2445.50 | $47 | $142 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:51
| Long | Cons-BO | 1 | 2448.75 | 2449.75 | $47 | $189 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:52
| Long | Cont-L | 1 | 2450.00 | 2451.00 | $47 | $236 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
8:55
| Long | Cont-L | 1 | 2451.25 | 2452.25 | $48 | $284 |
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:01
| Long | Cont-L | 1 | 2453.00 | 2450.75 | -$119 | $165 |
No follow through to the Long side, Flip Trade Short
1 Contract to Cover
4 Contracts for Recovery
No follow through to the Short side.
1st Trade
1st Trade
1st Trade
No follow through to the Short side, Flip Trade Long
4 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade - First Entry @ 25/08/17
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:05
| Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 4 | 2450.75 | 2449.75 | $195 | $360 |
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.
Revert to Plan B.
No further action required.
Market reversed again and hit short target.
1st Trade
1st Trade
No further action required.
Market reversed again and hit short target.
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:24
| Short | 1st 2 DWN | 1 | 2451.00 | 2450.00 | $48 | $408 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:33
| Short | Cons-BD | 1 | 2449.50 | 2448.50 | $48 | $456 |
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:44
| Short | Cont-S | 1 | 2448.50 | 2447.50 | $46 | $502 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:46
| Short | Cont-D | 1 | 2447.75 | 2446.75 | $49 | $551 |
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:47
| Short | Cont-S | 1 | 2446.75 | 2445.75 | $48 | $599 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
9:50
| Short | Cont-s | 1 | 2446.00 | 2445.00 | $47 | $646 |
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
10:00
| Short | Cont-S | 1 | 2444.50 | 2443.50 | $48 | $694 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
10:04
| Short | Cons-BD | 1 | 2443.00 | 2442.00 | $46 | $740 |
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
10:04
| Short | Cons-BD | 1 | 2442.75 | 2441.75 | $48 | $788 |
1st Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
10:15
| Short | Cont-S | 1 | 2442.00 | 2444.00 | -$105 | $683 |
1 Contract to Cover
3 Contracts for Recovery
3 Contracts for Recovery
Flip Trade
Time
|
Trade Direction
|
Signal Type
|
#Contracts Cover
|
#Contracts Recovery
|
Entry Price
|
Exit Price
|
Trade Profit
|
Day Profit
|
| 10:24 | Long | W-BTM | 1 | 3 | 2444.00 | 2445.00 | $146 | $829 |
Called it a day with $829 profits in the Sim account.
Daily Summary & Charts (Sim Account)
Another solid performance in the Sim account today.
The market made a couple of nice swings into and after the open.
I stopped trading just before the choppy rally that started around 10:30.
Another solid performance in the Sim account today.
The market made a couple of nice swings into and after the open.
I stopped trading just before the choppy rally that started around 10:30.
Comments
Post a Comment