August 21st, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $418 / Sim Trade Profit $0

Opening Comments

The market gapped open, rallied a bit then declined through the open approaching Friday's lows.
We then saw the usual rally back into the open.
This seems to be  a very common pattern when the market moves away from the open it tends to revert back prior to the regular hours open.

In the near term, we should expect a rally to take some of last weeks losses before continuing lower.

Our mid term prognosis, based on the cycle and inter-market analysis that we follow, is for the market to decline into October.

The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude.
However, looking at the market activity we anticipate the correction could come back to the 2360 levels.
Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17)

Going back to the Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses.
The fundamental  logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit.

The guidelines are as follows:

1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow,
2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point target.
3. If flipping requires more than 5 contracts ( this happens if the market runs away or if there are consecutive losing trades) we revert to Plan B.
*Note: The 5 contract limit is based on the margin requirement of $5,000 per contract and the level of capital in the trading account.

Plan B guidelines:

Hold the position and add contracts strategically as the market runs away from the entry point to maintain a break even that is within a 50% retracement level between to last low and high of the current market cycle.
The maximum number of contracts added to the original position cannot total more than 10 contracts.
Look for W or Support & Resistance trade signals for entry points to add contracts.
Raise the target as necessary to the new break even as contracts are added.
Wait for the market to come back and hit the break even target.
*Note: The 10 contract limit is based on the margin requirement of $5,000 per contract and the level of capital in the trading account.

Trade Signals
Signal Type
Long Signal Name
Long Signal Acronym
Short Signal Name
Short Signal Acronym
Continuation Trades
Continuation Trade – Long
Cont-L
Continuation Trade – Short
Cont-S
Trend Correction Trades
Rally off higher short-term Low – Long
HI’r-LO’s
Decline off lower short-term High – Short
LO’r-HI’s
W Trades
W Bottom – Long
W-BTM
W Top – Short
W-TOP
Support & Resistance
1st Up off Support – Long
1st UP Off SUP
1st Down off Resistance – Short
1st DWN off RES
1st 2 in a Row Trades
1st 2 in a Row Up – Long
1st 2 UP
1st 2 in a Row Down – Short
1st 2 DWN
Consolidation Trades
Consolidation Break Out – Long
Cons-BO
Consolidation Break Down – Short
Cons-BD

Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini

1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
1:17
Short
Cons-BD
1
2422.25
2421.25
$45
$45





1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
2:37
Short
Cons-BD
1
2421.00
2420.00
$45
$90





This trade did not follow through, but I missed the flip trade so will take a different approach.
I will wait for the first new sell signal, take another short position then adjust the target accordingly.
Kinda like Plan B.

 Took 1 more short @ 2424.75, see below.
Average price for the 2 trades is 2422.875.
Target should be 2421.75. But I am going to leave it at 2420.00 for now anticipating a further decline today.
Target was hit for a nice profit.
1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
7:50
Short
1st 2 DWN
1
2424.75
2420.00
$233
$323





1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
9:00
Short
Cons-BD
1
2421.00
2420.00
$45
$368





1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
9:02
Short
Cons-BD
1
2418.50
2420.00
-$80
$288





No follow through to the Short side, Flip Trade Long
1 Contract to Cover
2 Contracts for Recovery

Flip Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts Cover
#Contracts Recovery
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
9:18
Long1st UP off SUP122420.002421.75$165$453
No follow through to the Long side, market turned almost immediately.
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.
Revert to Plan B.
Did not have to resort to taking anymore positions.
Market rallied into my target.
1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
9:42
Long
Cont-L
1
2422.00
2423.00
$45
$498





1st Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
9:52
Long
Cons-BO
1
2422.75
2421.25
-$80
$418





No follow through to the Long side, Flip Trade Short
1 Contract to Cover
2 Contracts for Recovery

Flip Trade
Time
Trade Direction
Signal Type
#Contracts Cover
#Contracts Recovery
Entry Price
Exit Price
Trade Profit
Day Profit
10:06
Short1st 2 DWN122421.25
No follow through to the Short side.
Flip trade would take more than 5 contracts.

Revert to Plan B.

Ended the day holding 2 contracts short @ 2421.25.

Closed trade profits on the day are $418.

 Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini

No simulation trading done on the day

Daily Summary & Charts (Real Account)

 The market made some nice moves today that we capitalized on until we were limited by our capital and maximum contracts.































Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

June 19th, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $0, Sim Trade Profit $0

Image
Opening Comments No market moving events over the weekend. The markets opened about where they closed and have made a small upward move continuing the Friday late day rally. Prognosis for the week from our advisory subscription is for the market to rally in the first few days then pullback towards the end of the week. Our daily target in the Real Money account , for this week, is $250. Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini Missed a long signal at 1:04 and the market is running higher from that signal. Waiting for the next one. The 2,000 tick appeared to be setting up for 2 consecutive sell signals. I placed an order in anticipation that was filled, then the sell signal did not follow through. 3:40 - Sold 1 short @ 2438.00. Target @ 2437.00 Since this is already off plan and does represent a possible reversal point in the market I am going to adjust the target based on the open and Fibonacci numbers. The mid point between the 23 and 38% retracement levels brin...
Read more

August 22nd, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $ / Sim Trade Profit $863

Image
Opening Comments The market  rallied out of the open continuing Monday's afternoon rally. In the short term, next couple of days, we should expect a rally to take back some of last weeks losses before continuing lower. Our mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis, that we follow, is for the market to decline into October. The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude. However, looking at the market activity we anticipate the correction could come back to the 2360 levels. Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17) Going back to the Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses. The fundamental  logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit. The guidelines are as follows: 1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow, 2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point ...
Read more

May 23rd, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Sim Trade Profit $617

Image
Swing Trade Strategies Yesterday I mentioned a Swing Trade Strategy that I follow that needs a bit of work to improve it's performance. This strategy is based on the Naked Close concept. First of all what is a Naked Close? There are 2 types of naked closes. For a show of strength the close of this bar is higher than the high of the previous bar. I call this a Naked Close Long signal. For a show of weakness the close of this bar is lower than the low of the previous bar. I call this a Naked Close Short signal. In the chart below, a daily chart of the S&P 500 e-mini, the green dots indicate bars with a Naked Close Long signal and the red dots indicate bars with Naked Close Short signals. You can see that generally the Naked Close proceeds some sort of move in the direction of the signal. My strategy rules are pretty basic. Enter on the open of the next bar after the signal. Exit on the first profitable open or exit on a reversal or exit at a $3,000 Stop for...
Read more