June 15th, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $213, Sim Trade Profit $937
Opening Comments
Another positive performance yesterday.
We managed to exceed our daily target and collectively with the Sim account made over $800.
this was despite the erratic behaviour of the market due to the Fed interest rate increase.
I do not pay much attention to the news and only realized the Fed was talking after the fact.
Overnight the market continued lower out of the open.
There were a couple of very nice setups that were missed just due to timing, still in bed when they happened.
Got to sleep some time.
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
The market has dropped 10 point from the open and we would expect it to take some of that back and revert back toward the open before regular hours.
Looking for a sign of this to happen.
2,000 tick formed a nice double test of the 2424 level then gave us a buy signal coming off the second test. 3:19 - Too 1 long @2426.00. Target @ 2427.00.
No follow through on this trade. 2,000 tick moved lower off a lower short term high formed in the consolidation range, then broke lower into a sell signal. Put an order in to flip the trade, but did not get filled. Will wait for next signal and assess situation.
Keep target for long trade at 2427.00.
Since we have already gone off book I am going to adjust the target on this long trade in anticipation of a rally back toward the open. I will do this based on the Fibonacci sequence using the current low as the bottom and the high of yesterdays afternoon rally as the top.
This puts the 50% retracement @ 2429.50.
Will place the target just below this at 2428.75.
The market has pushed lower.
We adjust the Fibonacci sequence.
Leave target as is for now.
Market keeps pushing lower.
At some point we will look for a reversal and take another contract long to get our average price back into the 50% retracement level.
The 2,000 tick came off bottom and gave us two consecutive buy signals. this would normally be an entry point. However, the signal @ 2420 is not far enough away to make a significant difference in our average price and if the market did not follow through to the upside we would be siting with two long contracts.
A retracement back to our entry point is a possibility and provides the lowest risk option at this time.
The 2,000 tick declines off the rally then rallies off a higher short term low into a buy signal which is a good indication of a reversal. However, the trend line running down from the high has not yet been broken.
Coming into the open signals are setting up for a short trade. To flip here we would have to take 8 contracts which is more exposure than we can handle. Continue to play out the long position.
The market rallied off the open then declined off a high into 2 consecutive sell signals on the 2,000 tick chart in the 2422 range. I could have and should have flipped the trade at this point and I would be flat now. I have become a bit to fixated on the single strategy of waiting out the long trade. I am not thinking creatively with the market and seeing the other possibilities for getting clear of this long trade.
Market rallied back to the resistance level @ 2424.00. The 2,000 tick declined into 2 consecutive sell signals. Flipped trade. 9:06 took 6 short @ 2422.00. 1 to cover the long and 5 for recovery. Target @ 2421.00.
Target hit, we are flat with $30 profit.
Now we can get back to business.
The idea of the reversal strategy is to get back to a flat playing field. Making money on the reversal trade is a bonus.
2,000 tick consolidated with shallow rally then broke lower into a sell signal. Took 1 short @ 2420.00. Target @ 2419.00
Target hit, we are flat with $80
9:24 - 10,000 & 2,000 tick both gave us sell signals. Placed order but did not get filled.
2,000 tick rallies off bottom into 2 consecutive buy signals. 9:29 - too 1 long @ 2418.75. Target @ 2419.75.
Target hit, we are flat with $125 profit.
2,000 tick declines off rally into 2 consecutive sell signals. 9:36 - Took 1 short @ 2418.75. Target @ 2417.75
No follow through. 2,000 tick rallies from a higher short term low into a buy signal. Hesitated. did not place order. Market ran up. Missed opportunity to flip out and get flat.
Will have to work this trade a little differently now.
2,000 tick fluctuated then rallied into 2 consecutive buy signals while breaking higher from a consolidation range.9:57 - Took 5 long @ 2422.00. 1 to cover the short and 4 for recovery. Target 2423.00.
Target hit, we are flat with $140 profit.
Nothing easy today.
Shallow pullback/consolidation then a break higher into a buy signal. 10:04 - Took 1 long @ 2423.50. Target @ 2424.50.
Target hit, we are flat with $185 profit.
2,000 tick pulls back then rallies off a higher short term low into a buy signal. 10:29 - Took 1 long @ 2427.25. Target @ 2428.25.
Target hit, we are flat with $213 profit for the day.
It's been hard work today, but we have achieved or profit target.
Switch to Sim Account.
Simulation Trading LW Best TDOM Bonds
TDOM Entry Long Signal Day 14/06/17
Bonds did pull back late in the day.
Placed order for 1 long @ 155 20/32nd's
This order filled overnight on 15/06/17.
Stop @ 154.00
First profit exit day 19/06/17
EOD - 15/6/17
We are down a couple hundred dollars at this stage.
Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
Made our target in the Real Account so now starting Sim Trading at 10:35 am.
2,000 tick comes off the recent high into 2 consecutive sell signals. 10:37 - Took 2 short @ 2426.50. Target @ 2525.50
Target hit, we are flat with $94 profit.
3 bar consolidation on the 2,000 tick then a break lower into a sell signal. 11:00 - Took 2 short @ 2425.00. Target @ 2424.00
Target hit, we are flat with $189 profit.
2,000 tick rallies then declines off a lower short term high into a sell signal. 11:24 - Took 2 short @ 2424.50. Target 2423.50.
Target hit, we are flat with $284 profit.
2,000 tick rallies off recent low, breaks trend line, into 2 consecutive buy signals. 11:45 - Took 2 long @ 2426.75. Target @ 2427.75.
Target hit, we are flat with $379 profit.
2,000 tick rallied then declined off a lower short term high into a sell signal. Put an order in but did not get filled. market moved lower. Cancelled order wait for next one.
2,000 tick rallies off a recent low into 2 consecutive buy signals. 13:11 - Took 2 long @ 2427.25.
Target @ 2428.25. Jumped the gun on this one and the signal was not there when the bar closed. Will play it out and see what happens.
Target hit, we are flat with $474 profit.
2,000 tick declines of recent high into 2 consecutive sell signals. 13:35 - Took 2 short @ 2428.50. Target @ 2427.50.
No follow through. 2,000 tick rallied from a higher short term low into a buys signal. Flip Trade. 13:49 - Took 6 long @ 2429.75. 2 to cover the shorts and 4 for recovery. Target @ 2430.75.
No follow through. 2,000 tick declines of a double test of resistance @ 2430.50 into a sell signal. Flip Trade. 13:58 - Took 11 short @ 2429.00. 4 to cover the longs and 7 for recovery. Target @ 2428.00.
Now we have gotten caught up in a cycle of flip flopping signals in a very tight range. This can be disastrous. We will no wait for a break out to occur before taking another signal.
Market broke higher. Flipped to Long. 14:08 - Took 36 long @ 2430.75. 7 to cover the shorts and 29 for recovery. Target @ 2431.75.
I would not be doing this in a real money account.
Target hit, we are flat with $936 profit.
Enough for today.
Collectively between the Sim account and real account we have $1149 profits for the day.
Another positive performance yesterday.
We managed to exceed our daily target and collectively with the Sim account made over $800.
this was despite the erratic behaviour of the market due to the Fed interest rate increase.
I do not pay much attention to the news and only realized the Fed was talking after the fact.
Overnight the market continued lower out of the open.
There were a couple of very nice setups that were missed just due to timing, still in bed when they happened.
Got to sleep some time.
Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
The market has dropped 10 point from the open and we would expect it to take some of that back and revert back toward the open before regular hours.
Looking for a sign of this to happen.
2,000 tick formed a nice double test of the 2424 level then gave us a buy signal coming off the second test. 3:19 - Too 1 long @2426.00. Target @ 2427.00.
No follow through on this trade. 2,000 tick moved lower off a lower short term high formed in the consolidation range, then broke lower into a sell signal. Put an order in to flip the trade, but did not get filled. Will wait for next signal and assess situation.
Keep target for long trade at 2427.00.
Since we have already gone off book I am going to adjust the target on this long trade in anticipation of a rally back toward the open. I will do this based on the Fibonacci sequence using the current low as the bottom and the high of yesterdays afternoon rally as the top.
This puts the 50% retracement @ 2429.50.
Will place the target just below this at 2428.75.
The market has pushed lower.
We adjust the Fibonacci sequence.
Leave target as is for now.
Market keeps pushing lower.
At some point we will look for a reversal and take another contract long to get our average price back into the 50% retracement level.
The 2,000 tick came off bottom and gave us two consecutive buy signals. this would normally be an entry point. However, the signal @ 2420 is not far enough away to make a significant difference in our average price and if the market did not follow through to the upside we would be siting with two long contracts.
A retracement back to our entry point is a possibility and provides the lowest risk option at this time.
The 2,000 tick declines off the rally then rallies off a higher short term low into a buy signal which is a good indication of a reversal. However, the trend line running down from the high has not yet been broken.
Coming into the open signals are setting up for a short trade. To flip here we would have to take 8 contracts which is more exposure than we can handle. Continue to play out the long position.
The market rallied off the open then declined off a high into 2 consecutive sell signals on the 2,000 tick chart in the 2422 range. I could have and should have flipped the trade at this point and I would be flat now. I have become a bit to fixated on the single strategy of waiting out the long trade. I am not thinking creatively with the market and seeing the other possibilities for getting clear of this long trade.
Market rallied back to the resistance level @ 2424.00. The 2,000 tick declined into 2 consecutive sell signals. Flipped trade. 9:06 took 6 short @ 2422.00. 1 to cover the long and 5 for recovery. Target @ 2421.00.
Target hit, we are flat with $30 profit.
Now we can get back to business.
The idea of the reversal strategy is to get back to a flat playing field. Making money on the reversal trade is a bonus.
2,000 tick consolidated with shallow rally then broke lower into a sell signal. Took 1 short @ 2420.00. Target @ 2419.00
Target hit, we are flat with $80
9:24 - 10,000 & 2,000 tick both gave us sell signals. Placed order but did not get filled.
2,000 tick rallies off bottom into 2 consecutive buy signals. 9:29 - too 1 long @ 2418.75. Target @ 2419.75.
Target hit, we are flat with $125 profit.
2,000 tick declines off rally into 2 consecutive sell signals. 9:36 - Took 1 short @ 2418.75. Target @ 2417.75
No follow through. 2,000 tick rallies from a higher short term low into a buy signal. Hesitated. did not place order. Market ran up. Missed opportunity to flip out and get flat.
Will have to work this trade a little differently now.
2,000 tick fluctuated then rallied into 2 consecutive buy signals while breaking higher from a consolidation range.9:57 - Took 5 long @ 2422.00. 1 to cover the short and 4 for recovery. Target 2423.00.
Target hit, we are flat with $140 profit.
Nothing easy today.
Shallow pullback/consolidation then a break higher into a buy signal. 10:04 - Took 1 long @ 2423.50. Target @ 2424.50.
Target hit, we are flat with $185 profit.
2,000 tick pulls back then rallies off a higher short term low into a buy signal. 10:29 - Took 1 long @ 2427.25. Target @ 2428.25.
Target hit, we are flat with $213 profit for the day.
It's been hard work today, but we have achieved or profit target.
Switch to Sim Account.
Simulation Trading LW Best TDOM Bonds
Bonds did pull back late in the day.
Placed order for 1 long @ 155 20/32nd's
This order filled overnight on 15/06/17.
Stop @ 154.00
First profit exit day 19/06/17
EOD - 15/6/17
We are down a couple hundred dollars at this stage.
Simulation Trading S&P 500 e-Mini
Made our target in the Real Account so now starting Sim Trading at 10:35 am.
2,000 tick comes off the recent high into 2 consecutive sell signals. 10:37 - Took 2 short @ 2426.50. Target @ 2525.50
Target hit, we are flat with $94 profit.
3 bar consolidation on the 2,000 tick then a break lower into a sell signal. 11:00 - Took 2 short @ 2425.00. Target @ 2424.00
Target hit, we are flat with $189 profit.
2,000 tick rallies then declines off a lower short term high into a sell signal. 11:24 - Took 2 short @ 2424.50. Target 2423.50.
Target hit, we are flat with $284 profit.
2,000 tick rallies off recent low, breaks trend line, into 2 consecutive buy signals. 11:45 - Took 2 long @ 2426.75. Target @ 2427.75.
Target hit, we are flat with $379 profit.
2,000 tick rallied then declined off a lower short term high into a sell signal. Put an order in but did not get filled. market moved lower. Cancelled order wait for next one.
2,000 tick rallies off a recent low into 2 consecutive buy signals. 13:11 - Took 2 long @ 2427.25.
Target @ 2428.25. Jumped the gun on this one and the signal was not there when the bar closed. Will play it out and see what happens.
Target hit, we are flat with $474 profit.
2,000 tick declines of recent high into 2 consecutive sell signals. 13:35 - Took 2 short @ 2428.50. Target @ 2427.50.
No follow through. 2,000 tick rallied from a higher short term low into a buys signal. Flip Trade. 13:49 - Took 6 long @ 2429.75. 2 to cover the shorts and 4 for recovery. Target @ 2430.75.
No follow through. 2,000 tick declines of a double test of resistance @ 2430.50 into a sell signal. Flip Trade. 13:58 - Took 11 short @ 2429.00. 4 to cover the longs and 7 for recovery. Target @ 2428.00.
Now we have gotten caught up in a cycle of flip flopping signals in a very tight range. This can be disastrous. We will no wait for a break out to occur before taking another signal.
Market broke higher. Flipped to Long. 14:08 - Took 36 long @ 2430.75. 7 to cover the shorts and 29 for recovery. Target @ 2431.75.
I would not be doing this in a real money account.
Target hit, we are flat with $936 profit.
Enough for today.
Collectively between the Sim account and real account we have $1149 profits for the day.
Daily Summary & Charts
Check out the messy part.
Signals flip flop and the recovery strategy builds up contracts exponentially.
It can get out of control.
This is why, in the Real Money account, I limit myself to how may flips I make and how many contracts I can hold before I divert to Plan B.
Did well on the long side today.
Shorts were mostly losers.
The Trade list shows how fast things can go in the toilet, but also how robust the recovery method is, if you have the money and the nerves to execute it.
29 contracts requires $145,000 for the maintenance margin, not considering any additional if the trade runs against you.
The next step, if the last trade had not hit the target, was for 85 contracts requiring $425,000 for margin maintenance.
The ultimate logic is that eventually you have a trade go your way and you recover all your losses and make a profit.
But, it is a double edged sword which is both the systems strength and its Achilles heal.
Check out the messy part.
Signals flip flop and the recovery strategy builds up contracts exponentially.
It can get out of control.
This is why, in the Real Money account, I limit myself to how may flips I make and how many contracts I can hold before I divert to Plan B.
Did well on the long side today.
Shorts were mostly losers.
The Trade list shows how fast things can go in the toilet, but also how robust the recovery method is, if you have the money and the nerves to execute it.
29 contracts requires $145,000 for the maintenance margin, not considering any additional if the trade runs against you.
The next step, if the last trade had not hit the target, was for 85 contracts requiring $425,000 for margin maintenance.
The ultimate logic is that eventually you have a trade go your way and you recover all your losses and make a profit.
But, it is a double edged sword which is both the systems strength and its Achilles heal.
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