Trading Signals



My primary indicator for entering trades is called the Naked Close on a 30 minute chart.
Simply put this is when the current bars close is lower than the previous bar low for a short signal
OR when the current bars close is higher than the previous bars high for a long trade.
Blue balls and arrows are Naked Close Longs
Red balls and arrows are Naked Close Shorts
Statistically over the entire trading day these signals have about a 70% success rate hitting a 1 point target.
There are times of the day and days of the week where the statistical probability of success is over 90%.
I will use a 5 min chart and/or a 10000 tick chart from time to time to find intra-bar re-entries or when trying to get an early entry on the 30 minute signal.
I have not tracked the statistics on that as it is more random and harder to quantify.



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

June 19th, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $0, Sim Trade Profit $0

Image
Opening Comments No market moving events over the weekend. The markets opened about where they closed and have made a small upward move continuing the Friday late day rally. Prognosis for the week from our advisory subscription is for the market to rally in the first few days then pullback towards the end of the week. Our daily target in the Real Money account , for this week, is $250. Real Money Trading S&P 500 e-Mini Missed a long signal at 1:04 and the market is running higher from that signal. Waiting for the next one. The 2,000 tick appeared to be setting up for 2 consecutive sell signals. I placed an order in anticipation that was filled, then the sell signal did not follow through. 3:40 - Sold 1 short @ 2438.00. Target @ 2437.00 Since this is already off plan and does represent a possible reversal point in the market I am going to adjust the target based on the open and Fibonacci numbers. The mid point between the 23 and 38% retracement levels brin...
Read more

August 22nd, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Real Money Profit $ / Sim Trade Profit $863

Image
Opening Comments The market  rallied out of the open continuing Monday's afternoon rally. In the short term, next couple of days, we should expect a rally to take back some of last weeks losses before continuing lower. Our mid term prognosis based on the cycle and inter-market analysis, that we follow, is for the market to decline into October. The forecast provides general direction, but not magnitude. However, looking at the market activity we anticipate the correction could come back to the 2360 levels. Flipping & Recovery Strategy (Modified 21/08/17) Going back to the Plan B Concept for Flipping failed trades and recovering losses. The fundamental  logic of this strategy is to recover the losses of a previous trade, not making a profit. The guidelines are as follows: 1. The trigger event is when a trade does not follow, 2. The trade is flipped in the opposite direction taking the required number of contracts to recover the losses with a one point ...
Read more

May 23rd, 2017 - S&P 500 e-Mini - Trading Activity - Today's Sim Trade Profit $617

Image
Swing Trade Strategies Yesterday I mentioned a Swing Trade Strategy that I follow that needs a bit of work to improve it's performance. This strategy is based on the Naked Close concept. First of all what is a Naked Close? There are 2 types of naked closes. For a show of strength the close of this bar is higher than the high of the previous bar. I call this a Naked Close Long signal. For a show of weakness the close of this bar is lower than the low of the previous bar. I call this a Naked Close Short signal. In the chart below, a daily chart of the S&P 500 e-mini, the green dots indicate bars with a Naked Close Long signal and the red dots indicate bars with Naked Close Short signals. You can see that generally the Naked Close proceeds some sort of move in the direction of the signal. My strategy rules are pretty basic. Enter on the open of the next bar after the signal. Exit on the first profitable open or exit on a reversal or exit at a $3,000 Stop for...
Read more