Bernie's S&P E-Mini Futures Trading Journal

Overall a pretty good week. Broke a milestone with $5,000 profit in the Real Money Account. Pretty good for 3 months. Annualized ROR better than 20% Increasing the contract to 2 per trade on the Sim Account has made a significant difference. Came up just short of $5,000 this week, the best week to date. The plan now is to start taking additional trades in the Real Money Account beyond our Open Trade, the next step in transitioning what we are learning in the simulation into the real world. The results, in the Real Money Account, so far this year have been primarily from the Open Trade. So, what is this Open Trade. I recognized that there is a flurry of activity on the open and more often than not the market swings up and down within the first 30 minutes. I wondered if this would present a trading opportunity so I started tracking this action, gathering some data and doing some statistical analysis. What I found was that it about 80% of the time t...

Looks like the market has settled down as the overnight activity looks more normal than the last few days and the volume is pretty light in comparison. SWS out of yesterdays close in a fairly tight trading range. Pre-Market Trading The 10,000 tick chart gave a buy signal at 3:24 preceded by rising bottom in the 2,000 tick. Did not take this because the statistical probability of success was only 50%. The trade was a good one and the market rallied about 4 points from the signal. From the rally the market pulled back, then rallied from a higher low on the 2,000 tick into a buy signal. Took 2 long @ 2369.25. Target @ 2370.25. Target hit, we are flat with $95 profit. Switch to Real Money Account for Open Trade Coming into the open, the 8:09 close on the 10,000 tick chart gave us a sell signal. Took 2 short @ 2369.00. Target @ 2368.00. The market came down and touched the target, but I did not get filled. The market then rallied into the open and at 8:30...

When a stock, commodity or index gaps up or down it is commonly understood to expect that gap to be closed sometime in the near future. Well yesterday the market closed the gap from a couple of weeks ago in spectacular fashion dropping from near historic highs to the bottom of that gap, over 40 points. It looked like a market wide decline as the volume of decliners dwarfed advancers in the broad market. Should make for another interesting day today. Here is another one of the Swing trade strategies I am tracking. This based on Larry Williams Best Trading Days of the Month concepts. The action yesterday stopped me out of a long trade and gave me a good profit in a short trade in the same strategy. I allow myself to be both long and short at the same time. To do this on reality would require two separate accounts. This is the equity chart since January 2017, when I started tracking this. From yesterdays close the market rallied back about 10 point on higher than normal volume f...

WOW, Big drop after the close. Then back into our more typical overnight SWS range. Pre-Market Simulation Trading Not much happened at the European open, then we go a little bump and broke to the upside closing above the range and giving us a buy signal on the 10,000 tick chart at 3:26. Statistically not a great time to take a trade, but the price action looks attractive. Took 2 long @ 2386.00. Target @ 2387.00. Target hit, we are flat with $95 profit. 2,000 tick pulls back then rallies off a higher short term low into a buy signal. Took 2 long @ 2385.25. Target @ 2386.25. Target hit, we are flat with $190 profit. Waiting for the next signal and got a bit distracted. I am putting together a campaign for crowd funding, on GoFundMe, to build up some capital and be able to trade the simulation with Real Money, more on that once I get it active. At about 7:00 am the market made a relatively big move to the downside and then gave us a sell signal on the 10,00...

Overnight Activity Nothing to exciting. Faded lower from the close then basically went SWS until about 5:00 am when there was a flurry of activity and we rallied back to test resistance at the previous days high. The market is now digesting that move. Nothing trade-able so far. I follow a number of Swing Trade Strategies as well. One of them is based on Larry Williams Trading Days Left in the Month concept. This strategy identifies days of the month with statistically high probabilities of successful Long trades. This strategy closed out a trade this morning, Below is the equity chart since I started tracking this strategy in January. I've got a number of these Swing Trade strategies that I am following. I will post their performance from time to time. Switch to Real Money Account for Open Trade The rally appears to be continuing coming into the open and the market is probing historically high levels. All signals on the open were for a long trade. took 2 lon...